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What is the future of Oracle?
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Message Score Author Date
What is the future of Oracle? Hello Guys & Girl...... JB Koyen Jul 18, 2018, 10:54
Hello Guys & Girls ??? I doubt whether there's ...... Arvi Jayz Jul 19, 2018, 07:10
Okay, Okay, that’s a bit off topic. And yes, you ...... JB Koyen Jul 19, 2018, 08:02
Hi JB Regarding <i> My feeling is that Orac...... Score: 100 PtsScore: 100 PtsScore: 100 PtsScore: 100 PtsScore: 100 Pts Guy Lambregts Jul 19, 2018, 08:48
Hi JB, it's obviously a summer time up here, th...... Score: 800 PtsScore: 800 PtsScore: 800 PtsScore: 800 PtsScore: 800 Pts Ales Kavsek Jul 21, 2018, 14:39
...Part 2 <b>#2 Technological point</b> <b>**<...... Ales Kavsek Jul 21, 2018, 15:00
...part 3 ... <b>Is Oracle doomed?</b> Well, I...... Ales Kavsek Jul 21, 2018, 15:05
Hi Ales, Wow, that's indeed a very extensive re...... JB Koyen Jul 21, 2018, 22:19
Hi Ales I tried to find you on Linked in and Faceb...... JB Koyen Mar 05, 2019, 16:35
Hi JB, done. :) Regards, Ales... Ales Kavsek Mar 05, 2019, 17:01

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Subject: What is the future of Oracle?
Author: JB Koyen, Belgium
Date: Jul 18, 2018, 10:54, 309 days ago
Os info: All
Oracle info: 18c
Message: What is the future of Oracle?

Hello Guys & Girls, my topic is probably more suitable for the IMHO.
Because it regards how you see the future of Oracle as a company.
I am getting signals that worries me a bit and I like to get your opinions.

Aren't they able to get new customers, they are squeezing their own customers with licensing audits?
Is that a smart move of just short term vision...
Off course companies with heavy investments in own developed software cannot easily escape.
But application vendors can, in time, divert to MS-sqlserver, PostgreSQL

With SE1 & SE they delivered a competitive "bang for the buck" but with SE2 that's another story
Oracle "compatible" solutions like DBentrise are probaly not mature enough and surely not complete.
But the users of small and midsize businesses who are running 3rd parties application on an Oracle platform will press these vendor for alternatives. Or simply will go to other solutions after 3 to 5 year.

My feeling is that Oracle can maximize their current revenue the first coming years, but that they will lose business in that market segment on the longer term.
And with the not free Java story in mind: Did Oracle became a patent troll?

Another sign is that in The Netherlands a 200+ million project got stranded with Oracle as a significant factor.
I am afraid that you need to use translate.google.com if you want the Dutch text in English:
https://nos.nl/nieuwsuur/artikel/2241989-digitalisering-rechtspraak-uitgelopen-op-drama-minister-moet-ingrijpen.html

I really like to hear and see your insights about this non-technical Oracle “issue”!

Regards JB
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Subject: Re: What is the future of Oracle?
Author: Arvi Jayz, Switzerland
Date: Jul 19, 2018, 07:10, 308 days ago
Message: Hello Guys & Girls ???

I doubt whether there's a girl in here. I highly doubt that !!!
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Subject: Re: What is the future of Oracle?
Author: JB Koyen, Belgium
Date: Jul 19, 2018, 08:02, 308 days ago
Message: Okay, Okay, that’s a bit off topic.
And yes, you could say it is wishful thinking.
And nowadays even not political correct!

In de Dutch public transportation the greeting "Ladies & Gentleman" is discouraged.
It needs to be gender-neutral like "Dear Traveler".

Please read the first line of my post as "Dear DB-persons"...

But the bottom line is: How do you see the future of Oracle (Cloud only, Fortune 500 companies only …)
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Subject: Re: What is the future of Oracle?
Author: Guy Lambregts, Belgium
Date: Jul 19, 2018, 08:48, 308 days ago
Score:   Score: 100 PtsScore: 100 PtsScore: 100 PtsScore: 100 PtsScore: 100 Pts
Message: Hi JB

Regarding


My feeling is that Oracle can maximize their current revenue the first coming years, but that they will lose business in that market segment on the longer term


I - and the people around me - agree with that.

Regards

Guy
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Subject: Re: What is the future of Oracle?
Author: Ales Kavsek, Slovenia
Date: Jul 21, 2018, 14:39, 306 days ago
Score:   Score: 800 PtsScore: 800 PtsScore: 800 PtsScore: 800 PtsScore: 800 Pts
Message: Hi JB,

it's obviously a summer time up here, that's partly the reason of my lengthy reply that'll follow. Sorry folks!:)

The future of Oracle is definitely cloudy. And I mean in every possible connotation. Oracle earnings for more than a decade (possibly two decades!?) depends largely on existing support fees and from delivering increasing number of add-on license options (to already over-priced Enterprise Edition) to existing Oracle customers. And this sort of milking works for Oracle (hmm..., worked?).
OK, they also earn some bucks by selling applications from acquired companies, but that's not something that can save them from the worst enemy they have -- their own corporate culture and business practise and strategy.
Oracle continues to deliver top notch database technology to customers with their own on premise data centers around the World and this will likely (in one way or the othe)r continue to be a "success story" for a decade or perhaps even two. But the clouds gathering above the Oracle heads are definitely dark and stormy. Why?

The biggest things that work against Oracle are (imho) the following:
#1 Business transformation
** Hands down, Oracle still delivers great RDBMS features, but the problem is: nobody cares anymore. Or care much less than in the past. Oracle does not deliver any wow-effect any more to new generation developers. New kids on the block barely know or care about Oracle as such.

They need to refocus, they badly need someone that would bring changes to the Oracle business culture and practice in a big way -- someone that would bring changes like Satya Nadella did for Microsoft.
Microsoft would definitely sink with Ballmer on board. Sorry, but I can't see how Larry and Mark Hurd could do that. Period.

In the past Oracle was always in a position that allowed them to simply "buy-out" their way from a competition clinch. If you can't beat them, buy them.
However in the cloud era, they found the hard way that this won't work anymore. Oracle in a cloud business is the smallest fish in a tank. It's more likely that someone will buy them. Amazon, Google and Microsoft, they 're all barely noticing a red fly around their heads. And as much as Oracle wish to present themselves as a cloud leader, it's not.
If they think that at least every existing (loyal) Oracle customer will (someday) willingly jump on their cloud, just because of the Oracle label on it, they're heading against the wall...(end of part 1)
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Subject: Re: What is the future of Oracle?
Author: Ales Kavsek, Slovenia
Date: Jul 21, 2018, 15:00, 306 days ago
Message: ...Part 2

#2 Technological point
** Oracle does not scale well horizontally. And to be successful in a cloud business, you need horizontally scalable infrastructure.
They 're finally trying to address this with sharding. But considering costs per core, who on Earth would buy this anyway!?? Especially, if existing new DBMS (and some old, like PostgreSQL) are better suited for a job, much, much less complex and more or less free of charge.
I don't know for *any* startup company that started to develop their apps with Oracle in mind (on Oracle). None. Oracle is nowadays a legacy technology, like Cobol was two decades ago. Don't get me wrong, this is not necessary bad. A tone of existing solutions and applications will remain to run on Oracle, just not as much as Oracle expects.

** Developer perspective...the problem I see is with Oracle presence and renome among developers nowadays. It's hard for a long time Oracle specialist, like me, to admit, but the glory days are over. Forever!
Just consider the survey on Stackoverflow 2018 (>100K responses),
The most loved, dreaded and wanted databases:
https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/2018/#technology-most-loved-dreaded-and-wanted-databases

Only DB2 ranks lower than Oracle in the developers mindset. Ouch.... And no, it's not about NoSQL vs. legacy RDMBS. Look at the chart, can you see PostgreSQL as one of the most wanted (loved) database to work with? So, old school RDBMS is not nearly dead.

** Open Source perspective…. This decade (and the next one!) belongs to Open source (and on open source based) technology. OSS dominates in the field of innovation and more or less in all new deployments.
Not a single closed-source, proprietary software corporation can ignore that. Ten years ago I would not dare to think to run some production database on PostgreSQL instead of Oracle. Today, I would not have a second thought. Oracle should learn to behave better when working with open source community. Nadell changed the way Microsoft operates and behaves in the relation to OSS, Oracle did not (Solaris anyone? Java? ZFS?).
The fact is that PostgreSQL in the mean time became a viable platform, of course it lacks some features that Oracle has, but some features are on the same level as Oracle and with some features PG beats Oracle.

...end of part 2...
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Subject: Re: What is the future of Oracle?
Author: Ales Kavsek, Slovenia
Date: Jul 21, 2018, 15:05, 306 days ago
Message: ...part 3 ...

Is Oracle doomed?
Well, I don't think so. Databases are after all not underwear that you can change daily. If you have enough resources (money, time, human resource with the right skills and motivation) anything is possible. Just read the success story about Yandex (Russian Google) migration from Oracle to PostgreSQL:
https://www.pgcon.org/2016/schedule/track/DBA/923.en.html
But for every success we could find a dozen of migration horror stories, it's just that it's likely not something you could find as a presentation at conferences, because no one wants to brag with the failures.
I believe the biggest strength of Oracle corporation right now is not innovation that Oracle delivers to the public, but the inertia that keeps existing customers to stick with what they have and know.
It's certainly enough for Oracle to survive for at least a decade, but imho, it'll never rule the database/applications market with the same glory as they did in the past 20 years.

From a personal point of the view I can honestly say that I feel sorry for Oracle golden times, community wise, but at the same time I don’t really care about the future of Oracle corporation, I don’t have any stocks and don’t find that my existing knowledge of Oracle gives me any benefits on the job market. On contrary.
In the following months it's very likely that I'll end up jobless. At my age and with my skills I don't think I'll be in the market for a job that could be in any way connected with Oracle technology. Moreover, I don’t think that I’ll list my Oracle skills at all while looking for a new job (nor I'll mention that my first programming language was Cobol, yes, Oracle is nowadays in the same league as Cobol ;-).
And that's perhaps a good thing!

Regards,
Ales
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Subject: Re: What is the future of Oracle?
Author: JB Koyen, Belgium
Date: Jul 21, 2018, 22:19, 306 days ago
Message: Hi Ales,

Wow, that's indeed a very extensive reply, thank you very much for this detailed comment. Much appreciated!

It is inline with I feel and don't get me wrong, I do LOVE the Oracle database.
But their tools, application and the current support NOT so much.

Will this "Old dog" Oracle learn new tricks in near future, that's the question!
It looks like short term quick win policy, but may it genial and then again may be not.

Indeed, the RDBMS isn't dead! For some application it has it weaknesses and in other application it flourish!
I agree that PostgreSQL has lot of potential and will a suitable candidate for fresh developed applications.
By the way, the "Yandex.Mail success story" is a striking example what can (or will) happen.

I don't think you would be out of a job, because "old school" guys who use common sense are to valuable to keep out of business.

And I do like the comparison with COBOL, it is a comfort to know that this language is declared dead every occurring decade and still people are earning a good living on it.
And yes, I used to be a COBOL developer (and RPG) in the last century.

Thanks again for your insights!

Regards,

JB
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Subject: Re: What is the future of Oracle?
Author: JB Koyen, Belgium
Date: Mar 05, 2019, 16:35, 79 days ago
Message: Hi Ales I tried to find you on Linked in and Facebook but I didn't succeed.
Can you please drop a line on my temp email "Juan.Jaulas+temp@gmail.com" ?

Best regards Joep aka JB/JJ
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Subject: Re: What is the future of Oracle?
Author: Ales Kavsek, Slovenia
Date: Mar 05, 2019, 17:01, 79 days ago
Message: Hi JB,

done. :)

Regards,
Ales
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